Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-19 21.581450 23.449644 25.466905 27.817680 30.495412 33.466775 37.035916
2025-10-26 18.496279 21.015276 23.921580 27.563570 32.064644 37.526462 44.785749
2025-11-02 16.347303 19.213237 22.693527 27.317081 33.436191 41.470353 53.207379
2025-11-09 14.840308 17.923087 21.826456 27.273660 34.927460 45.726116 63.006317
2025-11-16 13.625888 16.822558 21.011128 27.103524 36.120650 49.696547 73.385617
2025-11-23 12.647631 15.905768 20.300686 26.927120 37.200083 53.623068 84.790306
2025-11-30 11.829674 15.113585 19.655614 26.723747 38.149116 57.463624 97.248207
2025-12-07 11.188196 14.500405 19.187964 26.700868 39.339394 61.912156 112.508991
2025-12-14 10.598800 13.907440 18.684338 26.542475 40.246110 66.003534 128.690244
2025-12-21 10.340585 13.767000 18.832124 27.429568 43.100751 74.529228 159.930970
2025-12-28 9.845552 13.237454 18.332989 27.171816 43.795219 78.747862 182.142972
2026-01-04 9.451638 12.831720 17.991338 27.138671 44.901805 84.152480 211.668360
2026-01-11 9.134544 12.531823 17.808560 27.390835 46.678583 91.813580 256.259544
2026-01-18 8.748760 12.102593 17.384458 27.163634 47.436661 97.234043 298.345763
2026-01-25 8.395159 11.703252 16.980790 26.932031 48.152639 102.822861 348.631596
2026-02-01 8.105418 11.388429 16.695695 26.893994 49.297111 110.065399 419.255256
2026-02-08 7.817371 11.060022 16.363820 26.729332 50.122781 116.704627 500.056349
2026-02-15 7.550240 10.751319 16.044920 26.557380 50.905059 123.565395 600.291266
2026-02-22 7.298443 10.454966 15.728303 26.358457 51.591105 130.445111 723.655981
2026-03-01 7.090826 10.221474 15.508093 26.336230 52.729750 139.536690 909.539923
2026-03-08 6.877709 9.968541 15.237159 26.181041 53.496332 147.647685 1133.069429
2026-03-15 6.819998 9.974425 15.435874 27.050648 57.236788 170.275992 1823.893220
2026-03-22 6.615342 9.719481 15.136719 26.798036 57.753779 179.004426 2368.371703